Politically Crass and Opportunistic, But Still the Right Decision 

I often wonder if Stephen Harper had proposed a “carbon tax” would we be having a less cynical discussion right now. The tax is dead centre in the heart of true Conservative orthodoxy, that market based decisions by individuals rather than government regulations are the best way to change behaviour and efficiently manage an economy. But no. Conservatives everywhere smell blood and will instead promise to “Axe the tax.” Replaced with what? Who knows. 

Yes the Liberals desperately need a win in Atlantic Canada to just possibly prevent an electoral slaughter in the next election. Beyond politics however there’s been a lot missing in the recent discussion. 

Steep inflation, a cost of living crisis, were never considered when the carbon tax was introduced. The market mechanism works when people with disposable incomes are encouraged to make better choices to meet important climate goals. In a reasonably humane country the carbon tax should not overtly punish or harm low income rural Canadians dependent on furnace oil, but that’s what it was doing. 

Despite the fact that the carbon tax suspension applies to all Canadians using furnace oil, there is a disproportionately large number of people in that situation in Atlantic Canada. 

There’s more. Furnace oil is the dirtiest of all fuels used for heating. And some important research by CBC Charlottetown reporter Kerry Campbell has revealed that it’s also the most expensive. Campbell discovered that to produce a unit of heat (a gigajoule) on PEI costs just over $47. The same heat unit in Saskatchewan using natural gas is just over $12. Yes Saskatchewan winters are colder but the carbon tax on this cleaner fuel is also less. 

The other part of the recent announcement (and what makes it more than just a crass political play) is a plan to help middle and low income Canadians using furnace oil to include heat pumps to warm their homes. To me this is what makes it more than just a give away to potential Liberal voters, or an inexcusable break with a plan to fight climate change. You’re replacing the dirtiest and most expensive fuel with a better technology. Period. And despite what’s been argued on some of the smartest political shows like Curse of Politics, and The Line, heat pumps are much more robust than they were just a few years ago, and capable of heating at very low temperatures. Do they completely replace an oil furnace everywhere? Of course not, but the amount of dirty furnace oil that gets burnt will plummet. And that matters. 

What about the cost of these heat pumps? Well the federal government is putting money into other technologies with similar aims to reduce carbon that have nothing to do with Atlantic Canada. Carbon capture is the most obvious. Is that a play to win seats in Alberta? (won’t work I know, and there is that certain pipeline nearing completion.) 

I think the most discouraging thing I’ve read or heard on this was from New Brunswick premier Blaine Higgs. He represents tens of thousands of rural New Brunswickers who will benefit from this, but his response was just the new Conservative mantra “Axe the tax” for everyone. Why? He told Catherine Cullen of CBC’s the House that Canada produces less than 2% of the world’s greenhouse gas production so what’s the point. It simply won’t change anything. If that’s the climate change strategy that Pierre Poilievre brings to the next election, and Canadians buy it, then Higgs is right. What’s the point.